TODAY’S TAKEAWAY

Always give a hypothesis.

The most successful professionals do it instinctively, so you should too.

THE STORY

The lipstick effect

It was 2001—just after 9/11. The economy was in a downturn and consumers were cutting back on their spending. 

Leonard Lauder, chairman of Estée Lauder, had expected sales of lipstick—which he thought was “discretionary” (AKA optional, like a vacation, concert, or premium coffee)—to decline.

He looked at his company’s data. To his surprise, lipstick sales had actually grown (by 11%, to be exact).

Immediately, he wondered: Could it be that lipstick sales actually increase during tough times because people still want to treat themselves… but want an affordable indulgence?

Armed with this hypothesis, Lauder coined the term “the lipstick index” and built a strategy around it, positioning makeup as small, affordable, reasonable pick-me-ups during hard times. 

Fast forward and Lauder’s hypothesis held up through not only the post-9/11 slump but also the 2008 financial crisis, despite a dip in consumer discretionary spending as a whole.

And the term “lipstick index” (or “lipstick effect”)? It became free press for Estée Lauder and continues to be cited by economists and journalists today.

THE UNSPOKEN RULE

Always give a hypothesis

What is the most commonly uttered phrase in the workplace (and maybe even in life)?

“I don’t know.”

Sure, there’s a time and place to be honest about what you don’t know, but even then, it’s helpful to understand why people are asking you the question in the first place: to better understand a situation.

When you say “I don’t know,” you’re shutting down the conversation right then and there. The person who asked the question still knows as much as they used to. All they heard from you was: “Don’t talk to me. Ask someone else or figure it out yourself.”

The better way? A hypothesis or, put simply, an educated guess.

This is what Lauder did. Was he certain that lipstick sales would grow as the economy soured? No—no one could be. But, in offering a hypothesis, he gave everyone around him, not to mention himself, something to work with.

What does this mean for you?

The next time you find yourself wanting to say “I don’t know,” try saying this instead:

1. “I’m not sure, but I suspect [hypothesis].”

2. “Based on [data / experience], my impression is [hypothesis].”

3. “I can double check and get back to you, but my first reaction is [hypothesis].”

4. “I’d imagine [hypothesis] because [evidence].”

You won’t always be right (just as I’m sure Lauder was wrong plenty of times before—we just don’t hear about it). But one of these hypotheses might just be true, thereby sending your career to new heights.

And even if it doesn’t, you at least gave the other person something to work with, which is why they came to you in the first place (and why they’ll keep coming back).

(Are you a manager who wants your direct reports to adopt this mindset? Check out this prior tip on how to teach new hires to be more self-sufficient.)

See you in 2 weeks for our next story and unspoken rule,

Gorick

PS: I answer a career question from a subscriber every month. You can submit your own question here.

WHAT I’M READING

Here are 3 articles that I found interesting recently (some with paywalls, but your first article should be free):

1. The AI backlash has tech executives fearing for their lives

2. More Degrees, Tougher Odds: Why the Job Market in 2026 Leaves New Grads Behind

3. Why do mosquitoes bite some people more than others?

MORE OF MY WORK

Every newsletter is free and a fraction of my work. Here are 4 of my paid offerings that may interest you:

1. Keynote speaking​​: If your organization is looking for speakers for your internship program, new hire orientation, new student orientation, manager training, all-hands meetings, recruiting season, year-end performance evaluation season, or something else, let's chat!

2. HOW TO SAY IT®: Flashcards that teach you to know what to say in every high-stakes professional setting via hundreds of fill-in-the-blank scripts (just like the examples above). Free shipping on all orders over $40.

3. The Unspoken Rules​: My Wall Street Journal Bestseller that Arianna Huffington calls “a blueprint for anyone starting their career, entering a new role, or wanting to get unstuck.” Used by top companies and MBA programs.

4. Soft skills crash course: Hard skills get you hired, but a lack of soft skills gets you fired. Equip your interns and early career talent with the essential behaviors of high performers in just 3.5 hours.

Gorick Ng
[email protected]​
Harvard career advisor | WSJ bestselling author | Fortune 500 keynote speaker | First-gen

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STORY SOURCES

1. was watching consumer behavior during the economic downturn following 9/11

2. Lipstick sales had risen to 11%

3. He named the spike the “lipstick index”

4. positioning makeup as small, affordable, reasonable pick-me-ups

5. not only the post-9/11 slump but also the 2008 financial crisis

6. Line graph showing the 11% surge in lipstick sales during the 2001 economic downturn.

7. Cover image